[Speculative] Sega Expects Around 500-550k Copies of Persona 5 Sold in September 2016


Sega Sammy Holdings has released their “Appendix of Consolidated Financial Statements — 3 Months Ended June 30, 2016,” which has a sales forecast of Sega’s upcoming packaged games.

Speculative reasoning suggests that, as part of these forecasts, Sega is expecting to sell a total of around 500-550k units of Persona 5 to retailers (so the number of copies shipped and not sold-through) when it releases in Japan in September 2016.

NOTE: This article is based around forecasts and speculation. The numbers should therefore be read accordingly.

Packaged Games Forecasts

Packaged Games Forecasts

The above represents the sales results and forecasts for Sega Sammy’s packaged games, which means the physically released video games shipped to retailers.

The row of note is “Domestic” (for Japan) and the column is “Forecasts Through 2Q,” under “FY Ending March 2017.” Sega Sammy’s current fiscal year began in April 2016, and “2Q” represents the second quarter of it: “July 2016,” “August 2016” and “September 2016.”

There are three different packaged titles set for release during that period, with four different SKUs. The games in question are the following:

  1. Etrian Odyssey V: The End of the Long Myth [3DS] (August 4, 2016)
  2. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva X [PS4] (August 30, 2016)
  3. Persona 5 [PS3 / PS4] (September 15, 2016)

With Persona 5 having two different SKUs for its PlayStation 3 and PlayStation 4 versions.

Mostly from those three titles and four SKUs to release in Japan, Sega Sammy expects 850,000 units to be sold.

Speculative Reasoning

Now the subject becomes to determine how Sega believes those 850k copies sold will be distributed by looking to predictive sales figures.

For Etrian Odyssey V:

  • Etrian Odyssey IV: Legends of the Titan opened at around 100k copies sold in Japan, in July 2012.
  • The “Yearning for Sales Organization” firm (or YSO) predictions—which have been accurate in the past—indicate that Etrian Odyssey V will sell around 110k copies in its opening week. (via Chris1964 on NeoGAF)
  • Going with bullish prospects for the continuing sales of EOV, let’s say that it sells an additional 38% of its initial sales within a period of two months (August and September).
  • This would mean Etrian Odyssey V could sell approximately 152,000 copies by the end of September 2016.

For Project Diva X:

  • Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd for the PS3 opened at around 61k copies sold in Japan, in March 2014.
  • Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone (PS4 digital) opened with around 35k sales in Japan, in June 2016. (via hiska-kun on NeoGAF)
  • Hatsune Miku: Project Diva X for the PS Vita opened at around 70k copies in Japan, in March 2016.
  • Going with bullish prospects for the sales of Project Diva X for the PS4 in Japan, it could open with around 70k sales and continue with an additional 25% of its initial sales within a period of one month (September).
  • This would mean Hatsune Miku: Project Diva X (PS4) could sell approximately 87,500 copies by the end of September 2016.

Taking both of those numbers determined by speculation and subtracting them from Sega’s envisioned 850,000 copies sold for the three second quarter titles leaves us with 610,500 copies. Taking other variables into account (e.g. previously released games sold contributing to the 850k value, such as the 90k for the first quarter):

This would mean Persona 5 could sell approximately 500,000 to 550,000 copies in Japan by the end of September 2016, within the two weeks after its release.

Previous Persona Game Sales

We created a graphic of overall Persona game sales in Japan earlier this year, which can be used as a reference.

The best selling game in the Persona series, in Japan, is still the first Persona with 410k copies sold after its release in September 1999. If Persona 5 were to sell approximately 500-550k copies in September 2016, it would become the highest selling game in the series within a month.

Persona 1

Persona 5 is slated to be released for the PS3 and PS4 in Japan on September 15, 2016, and in China on the same date for the PS4. It will have a February 14, 2017 North American release date, and the game has been announced for a European release.

— Appendix of Consolidated Financial Statements (Sega Sammy)